Google’s next step an OS? Probably not.
Jason Calacanis recently reveled in his accurate prediction that Google they will release an office suite in 2006. Kudos on the call but, I don’t think he is right about their next move — that Google will build an OS but, that also depends on the definition of an Operating System.
I think Google’s next move as Jason, astutely observes is to create “reoccurring revenue” for PC makers like Dell/HP by getting them to install something that isn’t MS Windows, however that something won’t be a Google OS. It will more likely be an Open source OS like, Ubuntu with a revived Google Pack installed on it. I think the simple reason for this is Google has been involved in Linux development for a long time but, in the area of the kernel not on the front end. Why should Google do any work when they can just piggy back on another great initiative.
The pack will have to have some interesting additions to really put the squeeze on MS. I think the obvious choice is “your desktop PC anywhere you are” — the current notion of “your” PC will become irrelevant, meaning, having everything on one piece of hardware you own won’t matter. You can see Google starting to do this now with Google Applications. With the addition of the elusive G-Drive mounted as a “virtual HD” sprinkled into the “Pack” you have a very flexible totally portable desktop environment. Imagine going to any machine in a business and signing in and getting all your preferences, all your documents, installed programs, right there for you! The great part about this it wouldn’t cost Google much, as they would be using currently available OS solutions, FF, Linux, etc. As more people buy PCs with the “Google OS/Pack†on them, more people will reap the benefits of the “anywhere desktop,†creating a runaway snowball effect.
So, I don’t think Google will build an OS in the strictest sense, I think they will extend existing technologies, the Linux desktop out to a their servers and their incredibly powerful data centers down to the desktop.